Going all out for the Malay, Chinese votes

Going all out for the Malay, Chinese votes 2011/01/28 zubaidah@nst.com.my Share | With the by-election campaign in Tenang nearing its climax, the question most asked is whether Barisan Nasional will win with a bigger or smaller majority than in 2008, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR MOST Tenang voters would have made up their minds by now; the parties involved in the electoral contest on Sunday know that their last-minute campaigning will have little impact on traditional voters. They can woo only fence-sitters, otherwise referred to as "floaters" or the swing group. Nevertheless, party workers are not going to make themselves less busy on the ground and in cyberspace over the next 48 hours, placing high hopes that voters will digest information to their advantage before they go to the polls. Their aim is to reach out to as many as possible of undecided voters while at the same time rally the party faithful. As the campaign moved into overdrive, Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat leaders are saying it will be a tough fight between Umno's Mohd Azahar Ibrahim and Pas' Normala Sudirman among the Malay and Chinese grassroots, the two groups that make up the bulk of Tenang voters. Another nagging question on the minds of people who have an interest in the by-election is whether Tenang voters, who had strayed from BN to the opposition in the 2008 general election, will return to the ruling coalition. Their number is not small. The late Datuk Sulaiman Taha's winning majority was slashed by half when he faced Pas' Mohd Saim Siran for the second consecutive general election. Sulaiman defeated Saim by a 5,517-vote majority in 2004 but this was reduced to 2,492 votes in the last general election. If the Galas story, in which Chinese votes had moved a little away from Pas in last October's Kelantan state by-election, is repeated in Tenang, the next question is whether it is enough for BN to claim that the trend is building momentum. Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was optimistic of a big win on Sunday. His calculation that BN could surpass the 5,000 vote-majority was possibly based on BN's impressive support in Felda schemes in 2008 and the Galas victory. Support for BN in the three Felda settlements in Tenang remained strong in the last general election. Pas secured only 20.4 per cent of votes in Felda Tenang, 18.6 per cent in Chemplak Barat and 18 per cent in Chemplak. But the past few days have seen Pas "foot soldiers" roaming the three Felda settlements where some 4,000 of 7,000 Malay voters live. BN campaigner Salah Dah-lan from Felda Chemplak Barat Umno branch was angry when relating how Pas muslimat (women) campaigners had "impersonated" Wanita Umno members, wearing red scarves to enable them to move around in Felda Chemplak Barat. "We bump into their people when we make our rounds," she said while distributing campaign leaflets with Pagoh Puteri Umno committee member Siti Hajar Ali Hassan on Tuesday. In nearby Felda Chemplak, a man in his 20s was giving directions to a group of women travelling in a car with Kuala Lumpur number plates. "Saya dari parti Pas (I am from Pas)," he said as he passed by reporters taking photographs of party flags on his motorcycle. New posters and banners belonging to Pakatan Rakyat, including pictures of Pas icon Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, appeared in the land schemes on Wednesday. Has Pas managed to make inroads into these Felda schemes after 2008? Pas-linked Persatuan Anak-Anak Felda continuously attacks Felda's management in a bid to gain support. DAP is also confident that Normala will win at least 60 per cent of the Tenang Chinese vote, much higher than the 38 per cent that the opposition achieved in 2008. There could be some truth to claims of an increase in Chinese support for the opposition since Umno campaigners had estimated that the Chinese support level had not gone beyond 30 per cent since the start of the campaign. Although they remain confident of winning the majority of Malay votes, Umno campaigners doubt whether BN's campaign led by MCA has been able to check DAP's influence and win over some support from the Chinese voters in Labis Tengah, Labis Timor and Labis, which are the three Chinese-majority areas BN lost in 2008. Statistics showed that the Pas candidate in 2008 secured between 50 per cent and 67 per cent of votes in Chinese-majority areas; in Labis Tengah, for example, where 96 per cent of voters were Chinese, Pas garnered 66.8 per cent. Pas has also not entirely left the campaigning in Chinese areas to DAP and its other ally, Parti Keadilan Rakyat. Its central committee member, Dr Muhajid Yusof, and several Chinese-speaking members of the Pas Supporters Congress from Perak took the campaign for Chinese votes to the Labis Chinese Methodist church on Sunday. "We are here; your prayers have been answered," he said to the priest, who during his sermon talked of the need to have good leaders. Ibrahim Suffian, director of pollster Merdeka Centre, does not foresee big surprises on Sunday, although he believes Umno should not be complacent about the Felda vote. A survey conducted by the centre prior to nomination day showed that the Chinese were opposed to BN and that Malays in Tenang hardly had issues with the BN government. "The opposition has been campaigning hard in Chinese areas and this could work to its advantage," said Ibrahim. Monash University Malaysia political scientist Prof James Chin predicted that BN had the edge over Pas in the electoral battle. Many issues have and continue to be debated in this by-election. There has been a bit of mudslinging and leaders have tried various angles to tip the political balance. The last 48 hours are crucial; campaigners are not about to slow down until they are forced to call it a day at midnight tomorrow when all campaigning comes to an end. Read more: Going all out for the Malay, Chinese votes http://www.nst.com.my/nst/articles/16lido/Article/#ixzz1CIY18JXf