BN has upper hand in coming general election, analysts say
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Analisis PRU 13 : Parti memerintah BN masih lagi menguasai
Semakin hampir Pilihan Raya Umum ke-13 (PRU13), semakin kerap persoalan dilontarkan tentang keputusannya nanti. Kalangan politik kini sedang sibuk membuat analisis dan ramalan masing-masing dengan Barisan Nasional dan pakatan pembangkang giat meningkatkan kempen mereka.
Sesetengah pihak membuat andaian bahawa apabila BN hilang lebih satu per tiga kerusi kawasan Parlimen pada PRU 2008, ia mungkin hilang kawalan ke atas kerajaan persekutuan pada pilihan raya kali ini.
Namun apabila berlaku pertukaran kepimpinan dan pelbagai program diperkenalkan di bawah gagasan 1Malaysia dan Program Transformasi Negara oleh kerajaan BN, kebanyakan penganalisis politik yakin peluang BN kekal menerajui kerajaan persekutuan adalah tinggi, malah akan menang lebih banyak kerusi kali ini.
"Ia bergantung kepada siapa kita bercakap. Kalau kita bercakap kepada penyokong kedua-dua pihak, sudah tentu masing-masing akan bercakap bagi pihak masing-masing.
"Namun apa yang perlu diambil kira ialah pihak yang berkecuali dan undi mereka yang penting," kata seorang penganalisis politik dari Pulau Pinang.
Pihak berkecuali ini termasuk kira-kira dua juta pengundi baru dan muda yang akan mengundi buat pertama kali yang sokongan mereka akan menjadi penentu siapa yang menerajui Putrajaya, katanya.
Strategis dan Anggota Parlimen DAP bagi kawasan Bukit Bendera, Liew Chin Tong berkata sama ada BN boleh mengekalkan kuasa kerajaan persekutuan bergantung kepada faktor "middle ground" kerana beliau percaya boleh berlaku 10 peratus peralihan undi sama ada kepada BN atau pakatan pembangkang.
"Middle ground yang perlu diambil kira. Setiap pilihan raya berbeza melibatkan personaliti baru, sentimen yang berbeza dan perubahan tema. Keputusan pilihan raya lalu hanya boleh dijadikan rujukan," katanya.
Liew berkata peralihan undi 10 peratus adalah besar yang tidak selalu berlaku tetapi tidak mustahil. BN memperoleh 65 peratus undi pada PRU 1995, 57 peratus pada 1999, 64 peratus pada 2004 dan 51 peratus pada 2008 dan antara pilihan raya 1995 dan 1999, undinya menurun lapan peratus dan antara 2004 dan 2008, ia jatuh 13 peratus, katanya.
"Pakatan pembangkang menang 83 dari 222 kerusi Parlimen pada pilihan raya 2008. Dari 139 kerusi BN, 55 dari Sabah, Sarawak dan Labuan sementara di Semenanjung, ia memiliki 85 kerusi berbanding pakatan pembangkang sebanyak 81," katanya dan menambah 51 peratus undi pakatan pembangkang diperoleh di Semenanjung.
Pada pilihan raya lepas, 54 dari 83 kerusi pakatan pembangkang diperoleh dengan majoriti kurang dari 10 peratus atau kerusi marginal.
Tetapi dalam pilihan raya akan datang, sekiranya terdapat 10 peratus peralihan undi yang memihak BN, pakatan pembangkang hanya akan tinggal 29 kerusi.
Sebaliknya 56 dari 139 kerusi BN dimenangi dengan majoriti kurang daripada 10 peratus pada 2008, dan peralihan 10 peratus undi yang memihak pakatan pembangkang akan menjejaskan pemerintahan BN.
"Daripada 56 kerusi marginal BN, 14 ialah dari Sabah dan Sarawak sementara 11 lagi dari Semenanjung dengan kurang daripada 70 peratus adalah undi Melayu.
Dari 54 kerusi marginal pakatan pembangkang, 34 adalah dari Semenanjung," katanya dan menambah kerusi marginal dari kedua-dua BN dan pakatan pembangkang berjumlah 110 kerusi, dengan 112 kerusi diperlukan untuk memenangi majoriti mudah di Dewan Rakyat.
Namun BN tidak terlalu bimbang dengan lebihan yang kecil. Ia memenangi 66 hingga 90 peratus kerusi Parlimen sejak 1959 dengan hanya 49.3 peratus ke 65.2 peratus undi.
BN tidak pernah menang lebih daripada dua per tiga (66.67 peratus) undi popular. Paling hampir ia menang lebih dua per tiga undi popular ialah pada 1995 (65.2 peratus) apabila ia menang 84.38 peratus kerusi Parlimen.
Pilihan raya terbaik bagi BN ialah pada 2004 apabila ia menang 90 peratus kerusi tetapi dengan hanya 63.9 peratus undi, namun masih kurang daripada dua per tiga.
Tahun 1995 merupakan tahun terbaik bagi BN dalam pungutan jumlah undi (65.2 peratus), tetapi ia hanya menang 84.38 peratus kerusi. Ini bermakna undi lebih tidak bermaksud memperoleh lebih banyak kerusi dan sebaliknya.
Ketua Publisiti BN Selangor, Datuk Yap Pian Hon berkata malah jika lebih ramai orang keluar mengundi pada pilihan raya kali ini dan pakatan pembangkang memperoleh lebih banyak undi, tiada jaminan ia boleh membentuk kerajaan persekutan.
"Ia bergantung di mana anda mengundi. Jika anda mengundi di kawasan bandar yang majoritinya sudah tentu pengundi Cina, maka pembangkang mungkin mendapat banyak undi, tetapi tidak kerusi," katanya.
Yap berkata pada PRU 2008, 82 kerusi Parlimen yang pakatan pembangkang menang terbahagi hampir sama antara pengundi Melayu dan bukan Melayu walaupun ia mendapat hampir 90 peratus undi kaum India, 70 peratus undi Cina dan 50 peratus undi Melayu.
Namun, beliau berkata kini undi kaum India berpecah 50:50 antara BN dan pakatan pembangkang sementara dijangkakan akan berlaku peningkatan kecil undi kaum Cina kepada pembangkang kepada 80 peratus daripada 70 peratus sebelum ini.
Sebarang pertambahan undi kaum Cina kepada pakatan pembangkang mungkin diimbangi dengan penurunan undi kaum India kepada pembangkang.
"Faktor penentu masih undi kaum Melayu. Lebih 60 peratus pengundi di negara ini ialah pengundi Melayu. Sebarang pertambahan undi Melayu kepada BN boleh mengimbangi penurunan undi bukan Melayu. Pada pilihan raya lalu, BN mendapat kira-kira 50 peratus undi Melayu," katanya.
Bagi membentuk kerajaan persekutuan, pakatan pembangkang perlu menang sekurang-kurangnya 94 daripada 165 kerusi di Semenanjung dan 18 daripada 57 kerusi di Sabah, Sarawak dan Labuan (31 di Sarawak, 25 di Sabah dan satu di Labuan) yang mungkin membawa kepada majoriti mudah 112 kerusi.
"Bagi menambah kepada 94 kerusi, ia perlu menang semua kerusi yang ia menang sebelum ini, termasuk yang diduduki oleh pihak yang keluar parti. Ini tidak termasuk menang tambahan 12 kerusi di Semenanjung dan 18 lagi di Sabah dan Sarawak,"katanya dan menambah beliau tidak melihat kemampuan pakatan pembangkang membentuk kerajaan persekutuan seterusnya.
Pakatan pembangkang menang 83 kerusi Parlimen pada pilihan raya umum lalu tetapi kini tinggal 76 ekoran tindakan wakil rakyatnya keluar parti.
Pemerhati politik bersetuju peluang pakatan pembangkang menang sekurang-kurangnya 18 kerusi di Sabah dan Sarawak masih samar-samar ekoran dibelenggu masalah seperti jentera pilihan raya, logistik, pemimpin tempatan dan sokongan pengundi luar bandar.
Pengundi di Sabah dan Sarawak turut menyokong parti tempatan seperti parti komponen BN berbanding pakatan pembangkang yang merupakan parti Semenanjung.
Penganalisis politik Dr Jeniri Amir dari Universiti Malaysia Sarawak berpendapat jumlah kerusi yang paling banyak yang boleh pakatan pembangkang menang di Sarawak ialah antara tujuh hingga 10 kerusi termasuk empat kawasan kelabu Parlimen yang diperuntukkan kepada SPDP (Mas Gading, Seratok, Baram dan Bintulu) dan kemungkinan mengekalkan Bandar Kuching dan Sibu serta menang di Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang dan Miri.
Di Sabah, kata beliau, pakatan pembangkang boleh menawan hanya lima kerusi Parlimen terutama yang majoriti pengundi Cina seperti Kudat, Tawau, Kota Kinabalu dan Sandakan.
"Sokongan menyeluruh kepada BN di Sabah dan Sarawak ialah 55 peratus, pakatan pembangkang 30 peratus dengan undi terapung kira-kira 15 peratus," tambahnya.
Walaupun pakatan pembangkang dilihat menghadapi kesukaran, Liew masih tidak menyangkal keupayaan pakatan itu dalam pilihan raya akan datang.
"Ia bergantung kepada magis berkempen yang boleh menyeimbangi keadaan,' katanya dan menambah DAP tidak pasti boleh menawan Pulau Pinang pada PRU 2008 sehingga beberapa hari sebelum hari mengundi.
"Namun pada ketika ini, BN menguasai keadaan. Dalam tempoh tiga tahun lalu di bawah (Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri) Najib (Tun Razak), kami tidak boleh mengubah kedudukan BN," katanya PRU ke-13, apa saja boleh berlaku. - Bernama
KUALA LUMPUR: As the 13th General Election (GE) draws nearer, questions are being frequently asked on its likely outcome.
Political circles are now abuzz with pre-poll analyses and forecasts as Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) step up their campaigning. In the last GE held on 8, 2008, BN lost more than one-third of parliamentaryseats. Some people even think that there is a remote possibility that the BN maylose its grip on the federal government in the next election. After four years, with changes in leadership and the implementation of various affirmative projects under the aegis of 1Malaysia and the Government Transformation Programme (GTP) by the BN-led federal government, most political analysts believe that the BN’s chances of retaining the federal government are still high, with some even arguing that it might win more seats this time.
"It depends on whom you talk to. If you talk to hardcore supporters from both sides, they will clearly speak for their side’s favour. However, it is the neutrals who count, and their votes will be important," says Penang-based political analyst Datuk Cheah See Kian.
The neutrals included about two million new and young voters who were going to vote for the first time and their support would be key to deciding who would take over Putrajaya, he said.
DAP strategist and member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera, Liew Chin Tong,says whether the BN can retain power at the federal level depends on "the middleground" as he believes that there could be a 10 per cent swing in votes, eitherfor BN or PR. "It is the middle ground that matters. Every election is a different one involving new personalities, different sentiments, and changing themes. Results from the previous election can only serve as a reference," he said.
Liew explained that there was no denying that a 10 per cent vote swing was huge "which does not always happen but it is not impossible". BN’s national vote share, he said, was 65 per cent in the 1995 generalelection, 57 per cent in 1999, 64 per cent in 2004, and 51 per cent in 2008. Between the 1995 and the 1999 elections, its vote share declined by eight per cent while following the 2004 election, it suffered a sharp 13 per cent drop.
“The opposition pact won 83 of the 222 parliamentary seats in the 2008 election. Of the BN’s 139 seats, 55 were from Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan while in Peninsular Malaysia, it won 85 seats over PR's 81," he said, adding that PR obtained 51 per cent of votes in the peninsula. In the previous election, 54 of PR's 83 seats were won with a majority ofless than 10 per cent or referred to as “marginal seats”. But in the next GE, if there is a 10 per cent swing in the BN’s favour, PR will be left with only 29 seats. On the other hand, 56 of BN’s 139 seats were won with a majority of less than 10 per cent in 2008, and a 10 per cent swing in PR's favour would severely impact on BN’s rule. "Of the BN’s 56 marginal seats, 14 are from Sabah and Sarawak while another22 are multi-ethnic peninsula seats with less than 70 per cent Malay voters. Of PR’s 54 marginal seats, 34 are multi-ethnic peninsula seats,” he said, adding that the marginal seats from both BN and PR totalled 110 seats, while 112 seats were needed to win a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
BN, however, is not too worried about its small gains. The coalition says ithas been winning 66 per cent to 90 per cent of the parliamentary seats since1959 without fail, against the backdrop of only 49.3 per cent to 65.2 per cent of votes. BN has never won more than two-thirds (66.67 per cent) of popular votes. The closest it ever came to a two-thirds win of the popular votes was in 1995 (65.2per cent) when it won 84.38 per cent of the seats in Parliament. The best election for the BN was in 2004 when it won 90 per cent of the seats but with just 63.9 per cent of votes, still less than two-thirds. The year 1995 was the best for the ruling party in terms of votes (65.2 percent), but it only won 84.38 per cent of the seats. This means more votes do not actually translate to more seats, and vice versa.
BN Selangor publicity chief Datuk Yap Pian Hon points out that even if agreater number of people turned out to vote and PR secures more votes, there isno guarantee it can form the next federal government. "It all depends on where you vote. If you are in the urban area, which of course covers the Chinese-majority areas mostly, then the opposition is likelyto get most of the votes, but not the seats," he said.
Yap explained that in the 2008 general election, the 82 parliamentary seats won by PR were divided almost equally between the Malays and non-Malays despite the fact that it got almost 90 per cent of Indian votes, 70 per cent of Chinese votes and 50 per cent of Malay votes. He, however, noted that currently, Indian votes were split 50:50 between BN and PR while it was predicted that there would be a small increase in Chinese votes for the opposition to 80 per cent from the previous 70 per cent. Any increase in Chinese votes for PR is likely to be offset by a drop in Indian votes for the opposition "The deciding factor is still Malay votes. More than 60 per cent of voters in this country are Malay. Any increase in Malay votes for BN can make up forthe decline in non-Malay votes. In the last election, BN got about 50 per cent of Malay votes."
"Whether PR retains its 83 seats in Parliament (now reduced to 76 due todefections), it would still be in the opposition," Yap maintained. In order to form the next federal government, PR must try to win at least 94of the 165 seats in Peninsular Malaysia and 18 of the 57 seats in Sabah, Sarawakand Labuan (31 in Sarawak, 25 in Sabah and one in Labuan) -- which may bring itto a simple majority of 112. "To increase to 94, it would need to win back all the seats it had wonpreviously, including the ones where its elected YBs (elected representatives)l eft the party. This does not include winning an additional 12 seats in the peninsula and another 18 in Sabah and Sarawak," he said, adding that he did not see any possibility of PR forming the next federal government.
Political observers also agree that the chances of PR winning at least 18 seats in Sabah and Sarawak do not look bright either as it is still bogged down by problems like election machinery, logistics, local leaders and reaching outto rural voters. Voters in Sabah and Sarawak are also more inclined towards parties that are based locally like BN's components whereas PR has peninsula-based parties.
Political analyst Dr Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak feels that the most number of seats that PR could win in Sarawak would be seven to 10, including four "grey” parliamentary seats allocated to SPDP (Mas Gading,Seratok, Baram, Bintulu), and with the possibility of retaining Bandar Kuching and Sibu, and wining Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Miri.
In Sabah, he said PR could capture only five parliamentary seats,particularly in Chinese-majority areas like Kudat, Tawau, Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan. "Overall support for the BN in Sabah and Sarawak is 55 per cent, and for PR 30 per cent, with floating votes of about 15 per cent," he added. Although PR finds the going to be tough, DAP's Liew is still upbeat in hisusual opposition demeanour in that one could not rule out PR forming the next federal government. "It depends on the magic of campaigning, which can tip the balance," hesaid, adding that DAP did not know it could win Penang in the 2008 GE until a few days before the polls. "But at this moment, BN has the upper hand. In the last three years under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, we have not just been able to change the BN’s position greatly," he conceded. Liew said the coming election "looks like the most unpredictable for it cango either way." -- BERNAMA
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